The Silver Lining on Dark Days

I’m an optimist, but sometimes digging for the positive side wears me out. This economy, it’s been tough on an optimist, but the dark clouds are beginning to thin. The bone-rattling thunderclaps of recession are giving way to the rolling thunder of a distant storm. There’s even some sun!

Yes, rays of sunshine (a.k.a. hope) are poking through the ominous clouds. We’re not talking a blistering Sahara sun here, but there’s enough for an optimist to soak in.

Pending home sales rose in March for the second month in a row. According to the Pending Home Sales Index of the National Association of Realtors, sales gained 3.2%, which is 1.6% higher than last year. This isn’t a guarantee of a continued upturn, but I’m looking for a sliver of light. Here it is.

While unemployment numbers continue to highs not seen since 1983, the number of people filing first-time unemployment claims is down. As reported by The Labor Department in May, it’s at its lowest level since January. There’s a lot of room for improvement, but this is a start.

This is the type of stuff I look for as an optimist. Here’s another consideration that offers hope—history. Recessions and depressions have historically created some powerful economic forces.

• GE was founded during the economic panic of 1873
• Disney was created during the recession of 1923
• Hewlett-Packard and Polaroid came into being during the Great Depression
• Microsoft was formed during the recession of 1975
• MTV launched in the midst of the 1981 recession
• iPod came on the scene during the recession of 2001

These breakthroughs helped revive sagging economies. There’s no reason to think history will not repeat itself in some way.

On another optimistic history note, according to those who watch such things, good stock market performance very often follows bad. We’ve had 12 periods when market returns were less than 6% over a ten-year period. Each of those periods was followed by a 10-year period with an average return of 13%. As I write this, the stock market is inching upwards.

And here’s another silver lining to the gloom—we seem to be learning from our mistakes. We’re getting back to saving. As consumers, we’ve lived beyond our means for too long. Our saving habits have not been, well, habitual; we just haven’t been good savers for the past 25 years. The recent negative economy has shown us the light and created a positive savings outlook. The importance of saving and having an emergency fund has hit home. That’s a good thing in any economy.

So you see, there’s some glimmer showing itself. I don’t want to go overboard with the flag-waving, but the truth is, we’re an industrious nation. While our industry has changed somewhat, our determination to persevere hasn’t. History is on our side. We will come out of this funk. It’s in our national nature.

Optimism. Are you with me?